Speaking on Financial Survival Radio, commodities investor, author of several financial books and chairman of Rogers Holdings, Jim Rogers, told FSR host, Jay Carter, he expects the silver price to reach the triple-digit price level, but is increasingly “worried” that a $100 silver price tag by year end would qualify the move in his mind as “parabolic.”
“I certainly hope it [$100 price in 2011] doesn’t happen because I own silver and want to buy more,” Rogers said.
Rogers, the 68-year-old Quantum Fund co-founder (with George Soros), doesn’t believe the 153% move higher in the silver price from the July 28 low of $17.35 should be characterized as a “parabolic” one. “No, not yet,” Rogers maintained.
However, if the silver price continues to soar along its recent two- to three-week trajectory and pass through the $100+ level, Rogers would most likely be a seller—but qualified his comment with an important condition: if a parabolic move in silver is not accompanied with a collapsing U.S. dollar against other major reserve currencies, he would consider offloading his silver holdings. If the dollar collapses during a parabolic move in the silver price, he intends to remain hedged against a dollar devaluation.
“My hope is, silver and gold and all commodities will continue to go up in an orderly way for another ten years or so, and eventually the prices will be very, very high,” he said. “Yes, we’ll have triple-digit silver, but if it happens this year, Jay, I would probably start to think about selling.”
Rogers added, “Now, maybe the U.S. dollar is going to become confetti in 2011, and if that’s the case and silver goes to $150, then obviously I wouldn’t sell my silver. It would be the U.S. dollar which is collapsing. But if silver goes up the way you’re talking about without currency collapse, I would be very worried.”
To understand better Rogers’ opinion about the possibility of $100 silver in 2011, his earlier comments about his outlook for the U.S. dollar for 2011 may help add context to his expectations for the silver price in 2011.
In a Mar. 17th interview on Yahoo Finance’s new daily trading and investing program Breakout, Rogers had said he was considering buying the U.S. dollar, but was also fearful that the tipping point for the U.S. dollar could conceivably be only weeks away. He had said he was going to monitor the movements of the dollar very closely.
“Somewhere along the line we’re going to have a tipping point for the dollar, then, it’s all over,” he had said in the Breakout interview. “I thought it would happen in a few years; maybe it’s going to happen in a few weeks.”
Rogers had stated, “If it [dollar] keeps going down, I’m going to have to dump the rest of my dollars, and then it’s all over for the dollar.
“If it [the U.S. dollar] goes down 3% or 4% from here, I would have to sell and get out and hope I’m still solvent. Then it’s going to, you know, multi-decade new lows.”
On the day of the Breakout interview of Mar. 17, the USDX closed at 76.04.
As of 08:45 EST on April 20, the USDX stands at 74.36, down 2.2% from the March 17 close and trades only 14 cents from its cycle low of 74.227 set on November 25, 2009.