By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul
Speaking with King World News, Goldmoney’s James Turk reiterated his $70 silver price target—but brazenly violates the rule of ‘responsible crystal balling’ by adding a date along with his price prediction. Turk expects a double within 90 days.
In essence, Turk expects silver to move up at a compounded annual rate of return of 700 percent by the end of silver’s seasonally bullish months, which end with May.
Now, that is one bold call . . . or is it?
A move that large must mean only one thing: A big event is just over the horizon, and it is about to emerge for everyone to see.
“Events so far this year have been extraordinary,” Turk told KWN. “The markets are signaling it. In reality, events are spinning out of control.”
That event, is Greece (and maybe a contrived political diversion) and its $18 billion interest payment due Mar. 20. With the Greek one-year bill yielding 720 percent, the market has already declared a default of Greek debt.
Back on January 17, Paris-based credit rating agency Fitch had stated that under the conditions set by Germany, the ECB and the IMF (Troika), Greece cannot, or will not, be saved. Greece must default.
“ . . . it won’t be a surprise when the Greek default actually happens and we expect it one way or the other to be relatively soon,” Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker told Bloomberg News.
On Feb. 28 (released on Feb. 28), Standard & Poor announced that it had lowered Greece’s credit rating to “SD,” Selective Default.
“Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its ‘CC’ long-term and ‘C’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Hellenic Republic (Greece) to ‘SD’ (selective default),” S&P stated in a release.
“If Greece were to withdraw from eurozone membership (which is not our base-case assumption) and introduce a new local currency, we would reevaluate our T&C assessment on Greece to reflect our view of the likelihood of the Greek sovereign and its central bank restricting nonsovereign access to foreign exchange needed for debt service,” the rating agency concluded.
In other words, if Greece takes back the drachma as its currency, the euro becomes a foreign currency and Greece survives. But what will come of the French and German banks that must then take the loss? The only logical answer: a monstrous ‘ring fencing’ operation by the world’s central banks to plug the gaping hole, but not a mere $18 billion hole; the hole could reach $2 trillion.
The Wall Street Journal reports on Feb. 28:
World financial leaders from the Group of 20 industrialized and developing economies will include an explicit March timeline for Europe to boost the size of its emergency bailout fund, a senior G-20 official involved in the discussions said Sunday.
The official G-20 communique will link the strengthening of Europe’s bailout fund as “essential input” into its considerations of bulking up the International Monetary Fund’s own lending resources, the person said.
Although the G-20 statement won’t incorporate specific amounts officials are targeting for the European Union firewall and IMF coffers, the finance ministers and central bankers pointed to an IMF study recommending $2 trillion in combined backstop facilities as a reference point.
It’s no surprise that insiders at S&P leaked the downgrade announcement scheduled for Feb. 28, as silver withstood selling pressure above the $35 breakout level with much ease on Monday.
“In this regard, I have mentioned several times my expectation that once resistance at $35 is taken out, silver will climb to $68-$70 in 2 to 3 months,” notes Turk. “I still expect that outcome, but of course, only time will tell. I thought it might be tough going for silver in the $35-$36 area, but maybe not based on the strength we are seeing today.”
With the release of the S&P downgrade to the dread “Selective Default” rating on Tuesday, now the global banking system needs to come up with $2 trillion to prevent an imminent Armageddon scenario, according to the IMF.
Translation: central bank balance sheet are poised to explode by some trillions.
Extraordinary events beget extraordinary price moves, according to Turk.
“I have mentioned several times my expectation that once resistance at $35 is taken out, silver will climb to $68-$70 in 2 to 3 months,” noted Turk. “I still expect that outcome, but of course, only time will tell. I thought it might be tough going for silver in the $35-$36 area, but maybe not based on the strength we are seeing today.”
Under the bizarre circumstances, Turk’s call for a two-bagger in silver may not actually be that outrageous after all. Moreover, there’s an outside chance that $70 silver by May is a conservative call given the potential for any number of mishaps or miscalculation by the G-20 following an official Greek default.