Fed Floods Market with Fake Gold, the Latest Hurdle for Gold Investors

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Tungsten-filled 10-ounce gold bars suddenly have appeared at some of the finest dealers of Manhattan.

No doubt, beginner investors who seek to purchase real money, a real asset, the ultimate safety, have had to overcome decades of carefully orchestrated financial propaganda from the Fed, Washington and academia.  ‘They’ say, the dollar is good, and gold is just a rock, a silly anachronism and an asset useful only to persecuted WWII-vintage Jews.

Then, having cleared the propaganda hurdle, the new class of awakened investors have had to somehow research the gold market long enough to maybe run into articles which discuss the accusations of fraud riddled throughout the paper gold aspect of the market and the manipulation scheme perpetrated by JP Morgan.

What appeared to be an easy way out of the dollar, through a click of a mouse and a few bucks commission on the Scottrade website, may turn out to be more dangerous than holding a debauching currency.

Enter, stage right, comes Jeff Christian, who assures investors that the paper market is on the up-and-up.  The debate between GATA and Jeff Christian kept some investors out of the line to take delivery of real metal, forestalling a bit longer the inevitable and coming stampede into the gold market.

Was GATA an organization spewing ‘conspiracy theories about a gold cartel?

Christian, a suspected shill for the gold cartel, argued that GATA was seeing things, imagining dark-hat bankers ripping off the public with un-backed gold ETFs and bogus short sales of the metal in the futures market.

The case of Andrew Maguire and the CFTC investigation into JP Morgan proves beyond a reasonable doubt that Christian is either a liar, an incompetent or a shill for the Fed.

Christian leaves the stage and CFTC’s Bart Chilton enters.  Chilton, the corn-fed, boy-next-door kind of guy, who grows up to become a heroic fighter of corruption in the financial markets, is the perfect character for the next act to Christian’s ‘Gaslight’ performance.

And the tangible results of the so-called Eliot Ness of Wall Street?  Nothing.  Nearly three years after the CFTC hearings and investigation into JP Morgan, Chilton comes up with zip, furthering the con of the U.S. dollar.  Chilton is now quiet.  He’s done his job for the Fed.  He may leave now.

Now, the poor, confused investor hears that the Fed’s QE-to-infinity policy will further debase the U.S. dollar.  Even some of the ‘big boys’ have come out with recommendations to buy gold.  PIMCO’s Bill Gross and Bridgewater Associate’s Ray Dalio have gone public recently to counter Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates, the con-job trio billionaire shills for the Fed.

Is it time to buy some physical?  Even the big boys think it’s a good idea.

But wait, the circulation of phony gold bars hits the news, and the companies selling the bars are, of course, the most reputable walk-in retailers of New York.

And the timing of news of the tungsten-filled gold bars couldn’t come at a most fortuitous time for the Fed.  The most recent announcement of QE3-to-infinity policy from Bernanke & Company is a downright admission that the U.S. economy is not responding to previous QEs, unprecedented levels of ‘currency swaps’ and a reflation of the over-the-counter derivatives market.

The Fed needs more help pushing the mob away from gold, because there isn’t enough gold to back all the paper promises saturated throughout the banking system.

“We’re getting closer and closer to the big disclosure that the banksters have stolen the gold, and now they’re flooding the market with fake gold,” TruNews radio host Rick Wiles tells his listening audience of Sept. 24.

Is Wiles spreading another ‘conspiracy theory’?  Let’s ask Christian what he thinks.  Let’s see if Chilton will recommend to the U.S. State Department that it shut down the Chinese company that’s been alleged to have made the phony bars.  Let’s see if Warren Buffett has anything to say.

Little Doubt! $3,500 Gold Price, a Minimum

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

To the ‘man on the street’, a price target of gold $3,500 must sound to him like the typical hyperbole of gold peddlers.  It must; sentiment of the gold-market-ignorant American public of the future price of gold still remains  low.

As Bill Murphy’s GATA has said, “They don’t even know how to spell gold.”

That’s because the public really has to see the effects of the Fed’s QEs.  In fact, a relatively few Americans haven’t an idea what so-called ‘quantitative easing’ truly means to him, personally, just as few understood similar Fed monetary practices orchestrated by Arthur Burns and William Miller during the inflation-roaring ’70s.  But he sure will see how inflation is eroding his lifestyle in the coming months—starting with a much higher oil price, and his coincidental savior, gold.

But something convenient for the monetary ‘authorities’ just happened.

A day before Bernanke pulls the trigger on indefinite purchases of mortgage-back debt, anti-American sentiment suddenly flares up in the Middle East and North Africa.

Coincidental?

The thinking behind the “there’s no such thing as a conicidence” may be driven by the assumption that Bernanke and his handlers knew that during the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman, AIG and the rest, the talking point, that the threat of another dip in the housing market will lead the U.S. economy into ‘deflation’ can only be told for so long.  Bernanke knew that food and energy prices are poised to soar faster than these dollar-sensitive ‘things’ rose during the 1970s.

Thinking that the Fed believes its own BS regarding the living costs of the average American reveals profound ignorance of the Fed’s real mandate, especially at this late stage of the Kondratiev debt cycle.  That mandate is: to protect its member banks.

And protected they will be.  With the Fed coming in at the last moment to cope with the mess at JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, the effects of an addition of $1.3 trillion (estimated by the close of calendar year 2013) expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet in the coming months will necessitate a new mantra from the Fed and MSM to now explain rapidly increasing food and energy prices during a global recession.

This time, China, alone, can no longer be blamed for stubbornly high oil prices.  Its economy is dropping like a stone, too.  Therefore, a new scapegoat for the future price of $150 to $200 per barrel of oil will emerge in the Middle East and North Africa, instead.  It will be called, either the “Arab Fall” or “WWIII”.

With the latest Fed announcement, it should be abundantly clear by now: the Fed is intentionally debasing the dollar, and it appears that the central bank will continue to debase the dollar until it fears a currency collapse—a course that Ron Paul said is a “detachment from reality,” after hearing of the press release of Fed’s FOMC meeting decision, Friday.

The Fed lives in reality, and it knows what it’s doing many months ahead of a carefully coordinated plan of public distraction.

There’s little doubt; gold will take off and begin the final stage of this tremendous secular rally.  Today’s low sentiment among mom and pop for holding gold will change this year and accelerate in 2013, taking gold to great heights.  Gold has reached new highs against the Indian rupee and near-highs priced in euros.

As far as the dollar, an ultimate price target for the gold price of $2,000 will turn out to be much, much too low.  It’s much more likely that Egon von Greyrz’s target price of $3,500 to $5,000 within 18 months will make much more sense, in retrospect.

Here’s why.

The following chart provides a rational for a target gold price of $3,500.

As an example of the Swiss economist and money manager Marc Faber comments about the effects of inflation, the chart (above) shows that inflation doesn’t manifest in all markets at the same time.

In the chart, the data show inflation had flowed into the oil market months following the peak in the gold price at the end of 2011 through to today.  The expected next rally in the gold-to-oil ratio is poised to test the Aug. 2011 high of 24.  But, instead of oil surging while gold was coming off its Apr. 2011 all-time high, today, both ‘commodities’ are expected to move much higher as a result of QE++, with the gold price outperforming the oil price by a considerable clip.

With predictions of a minimum oil price of $150 as a result of the Fed’s new QE-to-no-limit plan (to north of $200 in the event of an attack on Iran) and the multiple of the all-time high gold-to-oil ratio of 24 applied to the oil price, the gold price calculates to $3,600.  In the event of a $200 per barrel handle, $the target price moves up to $4,800.

As This Chart Clearly Shows, Stock Will Crash

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Harkening back to the Charles Nenner’s interview on Fox’s Bulls and Bears of early May 2011, his prediction of Dow 5,000 by the close of 2012 stood back then and stands today as a bold call.

But, here’s why stocks are very vulnerable to a Nenner crash scenario and why, even in the absence of a false move by the Fed, stock will most likely decline hard anyway.

A look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) suggests either the global economy is about to soar, or Nenner’s Dow 5,000 call could be on the money, or close to the money.

As of Sept. 12, the BDI stopped short of one point of its all-time low of 661, a level not seen since the S&P 500 crash low of 666 points, during the height of the Lehman crisis of Mar. 9 2009 [see graph, below].  But as the S&P closed on Sept. 12 at 1,463, a 130 points, or so, off its all-time high set during the second half of 2007, Bernanke manipulation of stock prices has set equity investors up for a fall—a very big fall.

Stock prices, which many regard as a leading economic indicator, need to explain, then, first: why have there been so many stock market crashes?  Did, suddenly, everyone change their minds about the economy and its health to deliver corporate profits?  And second: if the gold and silver markets, bond market, currencies markets and commodities markets are obviously ‘manhandled’ quite frequently by the Fed, why not stocks?  Why are stocks sacred cows of the Fed’s deception racket?

Economic, export and labor data, which show the U.S., European and Chinese economies either collapsing, in the case of the U.S. and Europe, or rapidly slowing, in the case of China and its Eastern satellites, serve as an underscore to the BDI’s low levels.

Just as the Fed used Morgan Stanley to prop up credit through the credit default swaps (CDSs) market as well as enlisting JP Morgan to suppress the price of PMs, it’s most likely that the Fed has buoyed stocks through the purchase of S&P futures via the NY Fed’s Exchange Stability Fund (ESF).

And here’s where it gets interesting.  The U.S. dollar broke through 80USD support rather easily this week, adding yet another negative for owning stocks.

At some point there will be an evaporation of the multi-year nonsensical mantra: that there is a ‘risk on’ trade and it means, buy stocks.  Instead, it’s more likely that a falling dollar against its rivals will turn out to be the foreshadowing of a crashing stock market and a soaring gold price.

The gold price did take a hit leading up to the Lehman bankruptcy of 2008, but at that time investors had not been prepared for the initial shock of the prospect of a global meltdown.  Gold had since recovered long before the crash low of 666 in the S&P was set on Mar. 9, 2009.  At the nadir of the S&P crash, gold was trading back up near its all-time high above $1,000 per ounce.

Today, however, there’s too much talk, evidence and time passed since the fall of Lehman to catch alleged ‘smart money’ much off-guard again.

From the looks of the gold chart, today, the buying on the dips to snag a better gold purchase before Armageddon arrives suggests that gold will not sell off during a crash in stocks; it will, instead soar in price, taking the number of ounces to buy the S&P to new post-1981 lows.

Many predictions of an October Surprise swirl the Internet, a stock market crash may well be that surprise, but the catalyst for the crash may come from anywhere—maybe war, as Nenner had predicted in May 2011.

Jim Rogers & Marc Faber Agree, Bombs Away

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Investors waiting for an official announcement of another round of Fed balance sheet expansion may be losing ground in the next leg up in precious metals prices—and in oil and other commodities prices.

Don’t wait for the shot to be heard.  Place your favorite dollar-destruction trade now before the mom-and-pop investor as well as the institutional money manager catches on to the next stage of deceptive practices of the Fed.

There’s no alternative to more money ‘printing’, according to Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings and Marc Faber of Marc Faber Limited.

In the case of Rogers, he says the Fed desperately wants to avoid more “egg on their face” after two QE mistakes, while both men lead the publicly stated  comparison between Bernanke and his lead neo-Keynesian cheerleader Paul Krugman with France’s 18th century John Law.

“I do not know whether they will announce it [QE3] or not. They are a little bit embarrassed because they announced QE1 and QE2, and it did not work. So they may try to discuss it,” Rogers told the Economic Times.

“They may just continue to do it without getting egg on their face again, but they are going to print money, they are all going to print money,” he adds.  “It is the wrong thing to do, but that is all they know to do.”

Once a complimentary Fed policy tool for orchestrating global money flows, the coordinated actions to manipulate interest rates and issue communiques have now become a huge liability for Bernanke.

It’s now become apparent that $2.1 trillion of officially-disclosed money creation since the onset of QE1 in Dec. 2008 has not delivered that reliable Keynesian magic as hoped.  Instead, much of that fiat merely spilled over into the commodities and precious metals markets, in addition to propping up insolvent banks and U.S. stock markets.

As the monetary base expands while real GDP contracts, the Fed must now downplay the evidence of monetization from the layman the best it can.  Otherwise, the Fed becomes completely irrelevant to harnessing the market from the superhighway of hyperinflation.

“If you look at their balance sheets, you will see that something is happening, assets are building on their balance sheets and they are not coming from the tooth fairy,” says Rogers.

Early last week, Rogers told The Daily Telegraph that Bernanke & Company “probably have learned how to do things off balance sheet.  I have nothing to confirm this, but everyone else has learned how, so they probably have, too. This is just a comment on human nature.”

The Swiss money manager Marc Faber agrees with Rogers’ on the outlook for the Fed’s money printing activities in the wake of $1.5 trillion U.S. budget deficits—along with no plan in sight to drastically cut military and ‘entitlement’ programs.

With more wars on the horizon and an American political class comprised of two parties rolled into one oligarchy in bed with bankers, Washington’s will to alter the course of runaway consumer prices through the destruction of the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power is clear—and was made most clear to those paying attention to a failed Ron Paul presidential campaign and a Simpson-Bowles impasse.

“In my opinion, as far as the eye can see, the Federal Reserve will never again implement tight monetary policies,” say Faber to a gathering at the Mises Institute.  They will print and print and print.”

Faber goes on to say that the neo-Keynesians don’t acknowledge that excessive leverage and levels of debt in the financial system are the root cause of the four-year-long global recession, pointing out an eight-page dissertation by economist Paul Krugman published by the NYTimes.

In Krugman’s article, not one mention of the problem of an over-leveraged banking system and excessively indebted economy was made,  lead Faber to believe that the implication is: more of the same monetary drug is recommended.

“They cannot afford to have a debt deflation in a credit addicted economy,” Faber continues.

Thousands of years of monetary history show that the road to hyperinflation is political driven, with no politician or central banker (in the case of today’s monetary system) desiring to be in the driver’s seat when the system crashes from its own weight.  Each elected and appointed policymaker knows that the ramifications of hyperinflation include civil unrest, violence and revolution—either peaceful, or not.  The targets will be on their backs.

“I tell you, sovereign credit in the Western world, they’re all bankrupt,” states Faber.  “But before they officially go bankrupt and can’t pay, they’re going to print money and massively so.  That should be very clear.  That’s the easiest way politically to postpone the hour of truth.”

Americans may fear the truth, but they haven’t experience the pain that goes with that truth—a la Greece, Spain and Italy, to mention a few.  As the market for Spanish and Italian sovereign debt now soars along with precious metals, the markets agree with Rogers and Faber: there’s virtually no turning back for the Fed and its complicit partners in monetary crimes, the ECB, BOJ, BOE and SNB.

Something VERY BIG is Coming to Silver

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Something truly very big is coming to the financial markets, and the precious metals are the place to be when that something big happens.

Too many analysts have come out lately, throwing around lofty targets to the price of gold and silver markets, and to take place within a very short period of time, for nothing concrete scheduled by global monetary ‘authorities’.

Something more than mere conjecture is at play.

The latest prediction for a moonshot in the silver market comes from Goldmoney Founder James Turk, who foresees, not only a massive short squeeze coming, but also surmises, at least, momentum also popping the top off the price of the poor-man’s monetary metal.

“I expect to see $68-$70 in 2-to-3 months,” Turk tells King World News (KWN), Monday.

Though incredible as that prediction may seem, others very close to the silver (and gold) market expect a similar explosive move in the metal.

“We could see those levels ($4,500 – $5,000 on gold) within a year and possibly much faster,” Swiss money manager Egon von Greyerz told KWN, Aug. 23. “This autumn we are going to have a very strong move.

“If we look at silver, silver is going to move a lot faster than gold,” he added.  “The same technical target for silver is $150.  That would move the gold/silver ratio down to 30/1.”

Whatever the catalyst for such an eye-popping move in the metals will be, someone in-the-know convinced GATA’s Bill Murphy that the coming news will be big—big enough to unleash silver from the grips of the JP Morgan-led cartel.

“The fellow I spoke with I’ve known for years, one of the wealthier men in all of Europe,” Murphy told the SGTreport, Jul. 19.  “He’s got a lot of connections . . . It will be tough for the gold and silver markets [during the month of July], but starting in August they would start to ‘go nuts’, and they would ‘stay nuts’ for a long time. . . Big, big moves are coming, starting in August.”

So far, Murphy’s source is spot on.

After briefly falling below $28, Aug. 20, the silver price soared $3.75 cents to $31.72, or 13.5 percent, to close out the month of August, breaking out of its 15-month-long descending trend line.

Could a truly favorable announcement from the CFTC regarding the JP Morgan manipulation scheme in the silver market be the catalyst for such a big move in silver?  Not likely.  But the news that could cause silver to “go nuts” might come from an announcement of another sort—a coordinated announcement by central bank of more ‘QE’, as JSMineset’s Jim Sinclair has suggested many months ago is inevitable.

It appears that Sinclair’s prediction, too, could be spot on, and if it were to come to pass, the flood of cash into the gold and silver market from hedge fund and institutional money managers would provide the needed ammunition to overwhelm JP Morgan’s price suppression scheme.

“Central banks need to take a more international perspective, recognize their collective influence and take into account monetary policy spillovers,” Jaime Caruana, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements told policymakers at Jackson Hole, Montana, the annual venue for central bankers.

The source of that quote comes from Reuters’ Alister Bull, who added, “Bernanke, in the audience at the luncheon address, did not flatly reject the suggestion, but he noted that a discussion about international monetary policy cooperation also implied cooperation on foreign exchange rates.”

After witnessing the effects on financial markets due to rapidly changing exchange rates leading up the 1987 stock market crash and the exacerbation of the Asian currency crisis of 1997-8, central planners won’t want to repeat that exercise.

The implications of a global coordination to debase the worlds major currencies are unprecedented in monetary history, as analysts outside of Wall Street’s “Hall of Mirrors” (as Jim Grant referred to the Fed’s deception) warn investors that the purpose of further central banking ‘easing’ beyond the already-failed economic growth policies of QE1 and QE2 has more to do with maintaining the illusion of solvency than these programs have done for economic expansion.

“For the first approximately 50 years of the last century, every additional $1 of debt in the U.S. created $4.60 of (additional) GDP,” von Greyerz told KWN, Aug. 30.  “In the last 10 years, every new dollar of debt has created 6 cents of GDP.”

But unlike the stock market crash of 1987 and Asian currency crisis, investors will have no strong currency with a deep enough market to sidestep a simultaneous devaluation of the world’s major fiat currencies.

The Swiss franc is loosely pegged to the euro; the BOJ is likely to be apart of the global coordination, along with the BOE; the Aussie and Canadian dollar are too small of a market; the Chinese will also be easing, according to Jim Rickards; and emerging market currencies that depend on healthy developed economies will ease as well in an effort to ameliorate a further drop off in exports due to a rise in their currencies against the dollar and euro.

For the first time in monetary history, the entire globe will embark on a currency debasement scheme, forced upon all nations by the Fed, primarily, and the ECB, secondarily, which, together, represent approximately 89 percent of all currency reserves held by central banks.

According to Goldmoney’s Turk, that scenario is the setup for what he refers to as “stage II” of the silver bull market—a stage in which the rallies are long and the rising prices attract institutional money as well as the wealthy retail investor into the market.

A move past the all-time high of $52 to Turk’s $70 target means that “silver is finally entering stage II of its bull market,” Turk tells KWN’s Eric King.  “That is when it will really gets exciting, Eric.  The first stage of a bull market, which is the one we are now in for silver, is always the boring part.

If a move in the silver price from $17.50 to nearly $50—within an eight-month period, beginning Aug. 2010 and ending Apr. 2011—is the “boring part,” the heights in store for silver investors during stage II could make some silver ‘stackers’ very rich, indeed.

Gold & Silver: Go “All-In”

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Calls for the Fed to make a QE announcement in September by Jim Rickards and John Taylor got another handicapper, Michael Pento, to go on the record for a likely announcement following the annual Jackson Hole meeting of the world’s central bankers in late August.

“My first impression was that the reports we had from the Wall Street Journal that the Fed was imminently going to interfere with the markets (with more QE), once again proved to be untrue,” Pento told King World NewsThursday.  “Bernanke is waiting for Jackson Hole.  He’ll make some kind of announcement, like he did back in 2010, and then he will start to put his plan to destroy the currency in effect, probably in September.”

That’s the situation in the U.S., as Pento sees it.  But within the EU, the situation is more dire and murky.  Laws there don’t allow for the ECB to intervene in the bond market like the Fed can.  But Pento has drawn the same conclusion as former Asst. Secretary of Treasury Paul Craig Roberts has: the laws will be broken in Europe—again, Germany’s outrage to the suggestion that the euro be monetized away will be ignored, and the EU will be taken over by a supranational cabal.

“In my estimation, the ECB is about three or four weeks away from giving a banking license to the EFSF and the ESM,” said Pento.  “This will lead to unlimited purchases of European debt, and an unlimited dilution to their currency.”

With Spanish 10-year yields soaring back over 7 percent today, ECB President Mario Draghi’s “do whatever it takes to preserve the eurozone” speech to save the euro from cracking 1.20 lasted only three days.  After touching approximately 6.5 percent Tuesday, the 10-year yield soared right back up past the 7 percent mark Thursday, likely putting more pressure on the euro in the coming days.

In the meantime, ‘main stream media (MSM)’ paints a picture of Draghi as an independent, yet dependent, central banker, pointing to the hurdles of corralling 17 sovereign nations before the ECB can intervene in a Fed-like manner to purchase Spanish sovereigns, implying that Draghi is in a box and panicked Monday when he awoke to a 7.6 percent Spanish yield.

“From a communication point of view, he [Draghi] misguided the markets,” Commerzbank’s chief economist Jörg Krämer told the New York Times. “He raised expectations which he could not fulfill.”

Analysis such as Kramer’s observation of what the ECB can or cannot do is either naive or intentionally misleading the markets, according to former U.S. Asst. Secretary of Treasury Paul Craig Roberts.

In an interview with Slovakia’s TV24li, Roberts stated that Greece and Italy have been taken over by former Goldman Sachs bureaucrats in Europe, with Italy’s president and entire cabinet appointed by those close to the nefarious U.S. investment banker.  The entire drama played out in Europe is a scam to save banks and to consolidate power to a supranational body, according to Roberts.

“Democracy [in Europe] is being destroyed.  And of course the EU bureaucrats are using the crisis [in the EU] to takeover the economic policies of the individual countries,” said Roberts.  “They say, we can’t trust the governments.  Look what’s happened, and so we are going to consolidate and we will make the tax decisions, budgets decisions for all the countries.”

To Pento’s credit, he’s picked up on Robert’s theme playing out in Europe, and has advised clients of Pento Portfolio Strategies to expect a dual last-minute ‘stick save’ from both the Fed and ECB.  Reports by the MSM of an imminent death of the euro are greatly exaggerated, he speculated.

“I am telling my clients, I am gearing them towards the inevitable inflation.  But I think it’s silly to go ‘all-in’ right now,” Pento concluded.  “We have significant holdings in precious metals and we have written covered calls against that strategy.” Then, we are ready to go all-in once we have a firm commitment on the part of these two central bankers to massively monetize the debt.”

Watch for Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole for hints of a ‘favorable’  announcement following the FOMC meeting in September.  All inflation-sensitive assets should soar, “but you will see the most salient moves in precious metals, base metals, energy and agricultural stocks and commodities,” he said.

Imminent Silver Price Explosion!

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Silver has perked its head up and sniffed the next round to hyperinflation is on the way.  Load up the truck; it’s expected to be the best ride, yet.  Here’s why:

No less than three articles penned by well-placed journalists at the ‘establishment’ rags of the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and the Economist were launched within days of each other, with all three ‘suggesting’ that Bernanke better start stirring-up the animal spirits—on the pronto!

Jon Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal, the man who the straight-shooting Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley calls the real chairman of the Fed, wrote Wednesday, following the dismal U.S. GDP report:

A few quick thoughts on GDP report out this morning:

Key price indexes are uniformly running below the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective. The personal consumption expenditures price index was up 1.6% from a year ago, thanks in part to falling gasoline prices. This is the price index that the Fed watches most closely, more so than the consumer price index produced by the Labor Department, which is running a touch higher. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index was up 1.8% from a year ago. The Fed watches this ex-food-and-energy index to get a read on underlying inflation trends. For the quarter at an annual rate, the PCE price index ran at 0.7% and excluding food and energy it ran at 1.8%. An alternate measure, the “market-based” price index, is also running below 2%. This is ammunition for Fed officials who want to act right away to spur growth. Not only is growth subpar, and the job market stuck in the mud, inflation is also running below the Fed’s long-run goals.

Final sales of domestic product — a measure of how the economy is doing when you take out inventory swings – up at a 1.2% rate in Q2 and averaging a 1.7% rate since 2011. That’s really substandard for a recovery.

That’s the first polite salvo at Bernanke.

Now from Greg Ip of the Economist.  Ip is Europe’s version of Wall Street Journal’s Hilsenrath, but it’s all the same as far as the American-European central bank alliance is concerned, with the Depression of 1873-79, the banking crisis of 1907, the brief but deep Depression of 1921, and the Depression of 1930-1945 to serve as stark reminders that the two economies are inexorably tied at the hip.

Ip piece for the Economist was written with the point of view of an article he would write in 2021, looking back at monetary policy of 2012.  A blog entry about Ip’s piece can be found at Zerohedge.com.

In the fall of 2012, Greece abrogated its bail-out agreement with the IMF, European Union and ECB, declared a moratorium on all external debt payments, and began paying domestic bills with IOUs that it then declared legal tender. The ECB cut off Greece’s banks, Greece responded with capital controls, and relabeled its IOUs “new drachmas” which quickly plunged to 35 euro cents. Bank runs immediately commenced throughout the periphery; bond yields in Spain shot over 7%; global stock markets cratered.

The ECB was finally forced to act to save the euro: it announced it would buy as many bonds as necessary to cap all sovereign yields at 6%, with the exception of Greece. The ECB never had to buy any bonds: investors no longer had any reason to sell since the ECB had taken insolvency off the table.

Days later, the ECB president destroyed the euro shorts during a press conference.

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro,” ECB President Mario Draghi told reports last week.  “And believe me, it will be enough.”

UBS’s Art Cashin commented on Draghi’s surprise market-moving jawbone antic:

“Mario Draghi’s comments stunned the markets,” stated Cashin.  “What prompted the timing of his move?”

Referring back to Ip’s article, Cashin continued, “Wait a minute! That [article] sounds rather close to what Mr. Draghi was discussing. Coincidence? Probably, but the timing is stunning. Somewhat like the simultaneous but separate development of calculus by Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz in the early 1600′s.”

Unlike Morgan Stanley Roach’s direct style, Cashin’s more-diplomatic observation nonetheless delivers the point.

And to complete the shock-and-awe three-man series of salvos from the mouthpieces of the ‘establishment’, Council on Foreign Relations commissar Sebastian Mallaby of Financial Times wrote Tuesday:

 . . . the Fed could couple more quantitative easing with a formal announcement of a higher inflation target.  Some Fed leaders are open to this. Charles Evans, the Chicago Fed president, has floated the idea of a 3 per cent target, effective until unemployment falls below 7 per cent. A higher inflation target would lead markets to understand the Fed is committed to quantitative easing of game-changing magnitude, inducing the behavioural shifts needed to make the policy succeed.

The Bernanke Fed has been pilloried for pursuing wild quantitative easing at the risk of inflation. The truth is that it has pursued cautious quantitative easing without risking inflation. The time has come for some fresh thinking. A Fed that can escape the myth of its audacity might be able to do more.

Inflation isn’t a problem, according to Mallaby, though ShadowStat’s John Williams’ reconstruction of M2 reveals a 15 percent growth rate doesn’t quite jibe with Mallaby’s neoclassical assertion.

And according to Williams, further money printing is, not only expected by the Fed, it will lead to hyperinflation by the end of 2014.

Not too surprisingly, no one really expected central banks to repeat a Wiemar scenario so quickly, including Williams, who, after witnessing central bankers unleash the printing presses following the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman, pushed up his forecast for toilet paper money to 2014, from 2019-20.

And the conclusion that can be drawn from all of that jibber-jabber from the ‘establishment’s’ prestitutes?

FX Concepts’ currency expert extraordinaire John Taylor told Bloomberg News Monday, “I think something’s going to happen on Tuesday, Wednesday, obviously reported Wednesday,” referring to the FOMC meeting this week.  “And mostly likely it’s going to be Bernanke teasing us a little bit, you know, that QE is coming.”

“September it’s [a formal announcement of more QE] coming,” Taylor said.

Fed Plans Dollar Devaluation, New Evidence; Why Now?

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Zerohedge.com once in a while posts a bombshell.  The latest, This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied – The Sequel, proves once again that Trends Journal Founder Gerald Celente should top investors’ Google News alerts for his latest outlook and commentary.

“You don’t own your money unless you have it in your possession.
—Gerald Celente Nov. 2011 (following MF Global’s sudden bankruptcy, Oct. 31)

And to put some official sanction to an already corrupt banking system, the safest of safe assets, cash, will shockingly turn out to be not safe after all when the big reset nears.  In fact, cash, too, will be confiscated through, maybe, another Obama Executive Order, more un-prosecuted fraud and consolidation to benefit JP Morgan, or just an old-fashion overnight currency devaluation, which is usual and customary—and is, presently, the odds on favorite after all attempts by the Fed to jury-rig the banking system fails.

As the following excerpts of the NY Fed proposal to Bernanke and Co. reveals, plans for coping with a banking crisis in the U.S. via some form of dollar devaluation are underway, including capital controls to stem a bank run—of course.  Therefore, it’s necessary to make changes to Money Market Rule 2a-7.

Title: The Minimum Balance At Risk: A Proposal to Mitigate the Systemic Risks Posed by Money Market Funds

 . . . This paper proposes another approach to mitigating the vulnerability of MMFs to runs by introducing a “minimum balance at risk” (MBR) that could provide a disincentive to run from a troubled money fund. The MBR would be a small fraction (for example, 5 percent) of each shareholder’s recent balances that could be redeemed only with a delay. The delay would ensure that redeeming investors remain partially invested in the fund long enough (we suggest 30 days) to share in any imminent portfolio losses or costs of their redemptions. However, as long as an investor’s balance exceeds her MBR, the rule would have no effect on her transactions, and no portion of any redemption would be delayed if her remaining shares exceed her minimum balance. [her?  Politically-correct thieves.]

The motivation for an MBR is to diminish the benefits of redeeming MMF shares quickly when a fund is in trouble and to reduce the potential costs that others’ redemptions impose on non-redeeming shareholders. Thus, the MBR would be an effective deterrent to runs because, in the event that an MMF breaks the buck (and only in such an event), the MBR would ensure a fairer allocation of losses among investors.

Importantly, an MBR rule also could be structured to create a disincentive for shareholders to redeem shares in a troubled MMF, and we show that such a disincentive is necessary for an MBR rule to be effective in slowing or stopping runs. In particular, we suggest a rule that would subordinate a portion of a redeeming shareholders’ MBR, so that the redeemer’s MBR absorbs losses before those of non-redeemers. Because the risk of losses in an MMF is usually remote, such a mechanism would have very little impact on redemption incentives in normal circumstances. However, if losses became more likely, the expected cost of redemptions would increase.  Investors would still have the option to redeem, but they would face a choice between redeeming to preserve liquidity and staying in the fund to protect principal. Creating a disincentive for redemptions when a fund is under strain is critical in protecting MMFs from runs, since shareholders otherwise face powerful incentives to redeem in order to simultaneously preserve liquidity and avoid losses. . .

Importantly, an MBR rule also could be structured to create a disincentive for shareholders to redeem shares in a troubled MMF, and we show that such a disincentive is necessary for an MBR rule to be effective in slowing or stopping runs. . .

. . . if losses became more likely, the expected cost of redemptions would increase.

[emphasis added to the above text]

And that bank run is sure to come, according to John Williams of ShadowStats, among other ‘unencumbered’ analysts, and will most likely involve all the “if necessary” clauses to kick in, such as “suspending redemptions” of money market funds altogether.

As the moment of another Lehman-like collapse (on steroids) nears, more and more bold calls for soaring gold prices by regulars of King World News (KWN) streamed in, all within a week.

With Spanish 10-year notes reaching 7.47 percent, Tuesday, closing above 7 percent for the past two trading days, and the IMF preparing to cut Greece off, the air is rife with an imminent emergency QE from the Fed, a global QE announcement of some kind, or at the outside chance, a complete financial panic brought on by a systemic European bank run.

However, Bernanke and his colleagues won’t allow a collapse as long as investors believe they’re still relevant.  More QE most likely is at hand to keep Spanish yields from, then, pushing up Italian yields above 7 percent, creating three fires in the eurozone instead of the only one fire still raging in Greece.

“It [global QE] is coming a lot faster than the gold bears think. It can be any weekend now. It could be this weekend,” Jim Sinclair of JSMineset stated on his blog this weekend.

“The longer the central banks wait, the more nuclear and longer the QE blast will have to be maintained,” he added.  “The price of gold is going to $3,500 and higher.”

And Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management brought up ‘black swans’ in his lengthy interview with KWN late last week.

“My biggest ‘black swan’, Eric, is that I think I’ll be right one day,” said Sprott.  “My worry is that one day they just shut everything down.  They say, ‘You know what, we just can’t keep this up anymore, the whole Ponzi (scheme), we just can’t do it and we shut it down.’

“All of the markets freeze, and the stocks that you are short are never allowed to go where they were.

“They might cease gold trading, in the normal sense, or maybe they will even outlaw gold trading.”

Jim Rickards, another regular on KWN was quoted by Austria-base FORMAT, Tuesday, “I expect a gold price of $7,000 by the next several years.”  Rickards, too, expects the U.S. to either outlaw gold possession or tax it into the underground economy.

Egon von Greyerz Matterhorn Asset Management told KWN, “ . . . my target on gold of $3,500 to $5,000 over the next 12 to 18 months, and then over $10,000 in 3 years.”  von Greyerz is convinced the monetary ‘authorities’ will have to incorporate gold back into global settlements.

Gerald Celente said on Max Keiser’s program, On The Edge, a false-flag attack could be in the offing before a QE announcement, presumably to distract the world from the Fed’s upcoming ridiculous and reckless policy move.

And, the interview to rival the Sinclair announcement comes from the Anonymous London Trader (ALT), who told KWN’s Eric King that something big will be coming out of official channels soon.  There’s too much discussion and scuttlebutt surrounding the unmentionable topic among polite company, which is, allocated gold accounts, or better, yet, the lack of allocation, thereof.

“It is now beginning to be discussed, openly, that the unallocated gold is not at the banks,” said ALT.  “This is definitely the case with many of the allocated accounts as well.  The reason I’m pointing this out is you have a more ‘open’ disclosure that’s taking place with regards to this.

“This tells me there is something major that is happening behind the scenes.  It tells me that the LBMA’s price fixing scheme is coming to an end.  You have these naked short positions, that are incomprehensible to most people, in both gold and silver….”  [emphasis added]

With GATA’s Bill Murphy’s testimony of his ‘connected’ source suggesting August will be the month of fireworks in the gold market, Nouriel Roubini making the rounds telling the world that the U.S. economy is tanking—again—and reports from Germany-based Der Spiegel that the International Monetary Fund will stop funding Greece as soon as the EMS becomes operative in September (which is still not funded), the world is on the precipice—for the umpteenth time—of financial Armageddon, unless something drastic comes out of the world’s central banks, soon.

All of that comes back to the NY Fed’s latest proposal to the FOMC.  If adopted, the NY Fed proposal to institute capital controls on money market funds may come sooner than investors now believe.  But you can count on central bankers to deploy Jim Sinclair’s mantra “QE to infinity” in the meantime.  In the eyes of neo-Keyensians, they have no better choice but to devalue the U.S. dollar more rapidly.  Gold (and silver) will be the last refuge.

Peter Schiff: A Much Bigger Collapse is Coming

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff received top headline on Yahoo Finance News Tuesday, encouraging investors to loading up on gold and silver before the rush from global investors into precious metals becomes the only game in town.

The global financial crisis will inevitably move to the other side of the Atlantic to the U.S., as the focus on the dollar’s terrible fundamentals once again puts pressure on the Treasury market.  And when that day comes, the selling of US debt and market turmoil it will ignite will dwarf Europe’s sovereign debt catastrophe, according to him.

“We’ve [U.S.] got a much bigger collapse coming, and not just of the markets but of the economy” Schiff tells Yahoo’s Breakout host Jeff Mack. “It’s like what you’re seeing in Europe right now, only worse.”

In agreement with Swiss economist Marc Faber and commodities trader Jim Rogers, Schiff predicts the Depression of the U.S. economy will deepen some time in 2013.

As the Fed responds with more aggressive QE to prop up banks, in addition to maintaining historically record low debt carrying costs to Treasury, investors will most likely come to realize that the Fed has become powerless to affect any positive outcome to the crisis.  More jobs will be lost, tax revenue to the Treasury will fall, and deficits will soar even higher than the $1.5 trillion deficit expected for fiscal 2013.

“That’s when it really is going to get interesting, because that’s when we hit our real fiscal cliff, when we’re going to have to slash — and I mean slash — government spending,” says Schiff.

“Alternatively, we can bail everybody out, pretend we can print our way out of a crisis, and, instead, we have runaway inflation, or hyper-inflation, which is going to be far worse than the collapse we would have if we did the right thing and just let everything implode,” Schiff continues.

But Bernanke will most likely make good on his promise to economist Milton Friedman (1912-2006) during a speech the Fed Chairman made at Friedman’s 90thbirthday celebration.  In his speech, Bernanke relived the Fed’s monetary policy responses to the financial crisis of the 1930s, and praised Friedman for pointing out that the Fed’s restriction of money supply to stem the flow of gold out of the United States was a mistake.  The Fed, instead, should have increased money supply to save the banking system and move off the gold standard (as Britain did earlier in the crisis).

“This action [raising of interest rates] stemmed the outflow of gold but contributed to what Friedman and Schwartz called a ‘spectacular’ increase in bank failures and bank runs, with 522 commercial banks closing their doors in October alone,” Bernanke said At the Conference to Honor Milton Friedman, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois .

“The policy tightening and the ongoing collapse of the banking system caused the money supply to fall precipitously, and the declines in output and prices became even more virulent.  Again, the logic is that a monetary policy change related to objectives other than the domestic economy–in this case, defense of the dollar against external attack–were followed by changes in domestic output and prices in the predicted direction [down].”

In 1931, the gold price was fixed at $20.67, making it a bargain to holders of U.S. dollars if the Fed had acted by debasing the dollar.  But instead, the Fed decided to protect the dollar from “attack” by domestic and foreign holders, a policy move that Schiff believes is in the best interest of the U.S. economy, today.

That’s not likely to happen, however.  It’s clear from the passage, above, of Bernanke’s entire speech that Bernanke will sacrifice the U.S. dollar in the hopes of saving the banking system; he believes it’s a small price to pay to prevent the decimation of the banking sector—the very point of Friedman’s lifetime of work.

“Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve,” Bernanke ended his speech.  “I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry.  But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

And Schiff takes Bernanke at his word, and recommends that investors buy gold and silver before “Helicopter” Ben makes good on his promise to Milton Friedman of 10 years ago.

Gold: Brace for Bizarre QE3 Hail Mary and Hyperinflation

By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul

If a 1.53 percent yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries isn’t enough to spook investors of a global economy on the verge of implosion, Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies expects the Fed to aggressively respond by ceasing to pay interest on excess reserves held at the U.S. central bank—and removing all reserve requirements on purchases of sovereign debt.  Fed Chairman Bernanke has his sites on negative rates.  The gold bugs will surely like that.

The one-two punch of a bazooka QE3 of that size, the potential onslaught of capital fleeing into hard assets as a result of a no-reserve global banking system, could be more than the Fed bargained for, and clearly indicates how desperate central bankers have become to prevent the largest Ponzi scheme of history from collapsing, according to Pento.

“So let me put it together for your listeners,” Pento told King World News (KWN), Sunday.  “We have $1.42 trillion of excess reserves.  We are now going to be told that there will be no capital reserve requirements on owning sovereign debt. You will have commercial banks flooding the market with the purchase of sovereign debt.  Not just U.S. debt, Portuguese debt, Spanish debt, Greek debt, all of that debt will have zero capital requirements.”

In other words, the Fed intends to lower the rate of the riskiest of all sovereign debt while punishing cash hoarders of the least risky sovereign debt, because, surely, rates on the shorter end of the Treasury curve will turn negative and it’s hoped will move the 10-year Treasury that much closer to zero, as well.  Ditto for sovereign and commercial debt across the entire spectrum of the global credit markets.

That’s the plan, according to Pento, but the market reaction to such a desperate, high-risk policy move is expected to soar commodities and the precious metals, as the last step beyond a no-reserve requirement banking system is ‘helicopter money’ directly into the hands of consumers.

“Let me be clear on this, I’m not saying it could increase M2 money supply to $15 trillion, this could increase it by $15 trillion,” Pento continued.  “So we’re talking perhaps about $24 trillion.   It has the potential to increase to rapidly increase the global money supply, and it would be a tremendous boost to commodities, oil and precious metals.”

Pento’s expectations for such a move is consistent with earlier policy suggestions made by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in January 2012 (reported by zerohedge, Feb. 1, 2012), which stated in its report to the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, “There was a lengthy discussion regarding the bid-to-cover ratios at recent Treasury bill auctions. It was broadly agreed that flooring interest rates at zero, or capping issuance proceeds at par, was prohibiting proper market function.

“The Committee unanimously recommended that the Treasury Department allow for negative yield auction results as soon as logistically practical.”

And it would make no sense for the Fed to impede the plan by requiring reserves on top of the U.S. Treasury actually charging bill and note holders of U.S. debt for lending the U.S. government money.  In this perverse environment of targeting negative interest rates, it’s become clear that the Fed has given up on the U.S. economy, and more broadly, hopes of the global economy pulling the U.S. out of its nosedive; Bernanke and Company are merely playing out a losing hand—a hand that ShadowStats economist John Williams has said will lead to hyperinflation by the close of 2014.  Lowering borrowing costs to offset lower tax receipts to service $15.8 trillion of U.S. debt in addition to the fiscal 2013 budget is the only option left open to the Fed.

“Outside timing on the hyperinflation remains 2014, but events of the last year have accelerated the movement towards this ultimate dollar catastrophe,” Williams said in an interview with KWN, Jan. 26, 2012.  “Following Mr. Bernanke‘s extraordinary efforts to debase the U.S. currency in late-2010, the dollar had lost its traditional safe-haven status by early-2011.  Whatever global confidence had remained behind the U.S dollar was lost in July and August [2011].”

Pento agrees, understating the Fed’s goal of negative interest rates—on top of zero reserve requirements—as “not a good idea.”

Pento said in his July 8 interview with KWN, “What he [Bernanke] needs to do is let the free market work, and I can tell you that unleashing $1.5 trillion into the American economy, and having that money roll-over and multiply (to $15 trillion), through the money-multiplier-effect, is not a very good idea.”

Indeed, it is not a good idea, but there is no other idea left for the Fed to execute.

Spot gold: $1,569 per Troy ounce.