Jim Rogers: Don’t sell your Gold; buy the Dips

Commodities king Jim Rogers made the rounds with the media yesterday, speaking to, among others, the The Economic Times of India regarding his latest thoughts on the gold price.

Now living in Singapore, the 68-year-old American citizen reckons the gold price may meander lower in coming weeks, but strongly suggests that weaker prices present an opportunity for investors who missed the boat on this roaring bull market to jump aboard to higher prices he sees in the future due to the protracted sovereign debt crisis in the Europe, then, in the United States.

“ . . . gold has been up 10 years in a row, which is very unusual in any asset class,” Rogers told India’s largest financial daily publication The Economic Times.  “So if it is up this year or 11 years in a row, gold is overdue for a correction and it could have a nice substantial correction given that it has been so strong.”

“I have no idea what is going to happen this year.  I doubt if it will go to $2000 an ounce in 2011, it is more likely to have a correction which will last for several weeks, several months,” he continued. “It has been very strong. If it goes down some more, I would buy more gold.”

Just as two other hard-money advocates Peter Schiff and Marc Faber have already suggested in their comments earlier this week, Rogers said he sees the pullback in the gold price as a healthy one within a larger contextual outlook for the precious metal in the longer term.  He, as both Schiff and Faber have indicated, view the pullback in gold—and silver—as, yet, another buying opportunity for investors seeking protection from the endgame of expected currency debasements of the euro and U.S. dollar.

But, as on several occasions of the past decade, the pendulum has swung to fear again in the gold market, as Mr. Market—with a little help from regulators and central bankers who apply pressure points to leveraged paper traders at seemingly the most opportune times—took latecomers and momentum traders to the woodshed as punishment for their short-term greed indiscretions.  Buyers of the physical metals, however, swamped dealers with orders during the vicious sell off (see $10 billion Sprott Asset Management’s Eric Sprott interview on King World News).

Rogers continued: “When fear permeates a market, everybody sells, especially the last ones in frequently have to jump out. They have raised margin requirements for both silver and gold. So that makes it more and more difficult for people to hold on.”

Incidentally, the uber-U.S.-centric Forbes Magazine’s takeaway from Rogers’ sanguine comments borrowed from the ET interview, regarding the recent turmoil in the gold market, was subtly skewed by its headline—omitting of his most salient point: buy the dips!

Forbes Magazine headline: Jim Rogers Tells India Press Gold Will Decline For ‘Months’.

On the other hand, the original price from the 40-year-old ET is entitled:

Gold price correction will last for several months; buy on dips: Jim Rogers. (emphasis added).

Though the Forbes’ piece does include the entire Rogers quote, which includes the “buy the dips” statement, one has to wonder how hard the magazine has been hit in advertising revenue now that U.S. dollar-denominated paper assets have taken a beating against real money, gold?  As Keynesians have previously indicated, higher gold prices are a barometer of the public’s disaffection of stewards of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollars—and the euro, at this time, too.

But in fairness to Forbes, it hadn’t spread comments from unconfirmed and anonymous sources during the never-ending crisis out of Europe as CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Financial Times of London have.

The crisis was a long time in coming, as Jim Rogers has repeated stated for years, and the Kremlin-like credibility of those reporting the crisis have only served to underscore Rogers’ comments regarding his reasons for owning gold.  Freegold for free people.

Silver to reach $75 following Wild Volatility, says Silver Guru

Silver investors have become routinely accustomed to silver’s rapid price advances during less-impressive advances in the gold price,and vice versa, on the way down; silver has plunged sharply while gold merely “corrected” during the decade-long 2-steps-forward-and-1-step back bull market.  Silver can be said to act as a leveraged play to the gold price.

But during a period when global market participants suddenly get hit in the face with the chilling reality of how bad the state of the financial and political system of the West really are (and, now, how this mess could affect China), a lot of unwinding of trades dependent upon the prospects for silver’s industrial demand will greatly dampen, or depress, the upward move in the silver price which otherwise would result from buyer of silver as a safe haven monetary metal.

But not to worry about silver’s temporary disconnect with gold, according to life-long silver aficionado, David Morgan, the publisher of The Morgan Letter.

In an interview with The Gold Report, Morgan said it’s hard to predict the amount of hot money in the silver trade at any one time compared with committed money in the metal.

“As people figure out that there really is no solution to the global financial system without a great deal of pain and some defaults along the road, more will seek the safety of precious metals,” said Morgan.  “So, even when things calm down for the moment, it does not mean the precious metals will not get pushed down.”

In the event of a tragic solvency crisis turning into outright signs of a Depression coming, the bloodletting in the silver market may continue until it’s flushed of weak hands jumping from one trade to the next—which is a considerable amount when considering the ratio of dollars held in paper silver against physical silver is approximately 100:1, according to GATA.

“You could see gold and silver react to the downside, perhaps dramatically—$5/ounce (oz.) silver is not entirely out of the realm of possibility,” Morgan speculated in the event of another 2008-like sell off, though the catalyst for today’s crisis centers on the insolvency of governments and the shock of much weaker-than-expected economic growth from debtor nations.

“My best guess is we will see some pullback going into mid-August,” he added, as investor demand comes back in to pick up silver at bargain prices before the traditional September to April buying season and strong demand accelerating out of Asia.

But more importantly, Morgan, who agrees with Swiss money manager Marc Faber suspects that the endgame in the Bretton Woods currency scheme failure is near, and that governments will opt to continue debasing their respective currencies in lieu of outright default.  But where the two men differ from Goldmoney’s James Turk and the legendary Jim Sinclair is, first, a sell off before the historic advance in the silver price past the all-time high of $50.35.

As the crisis deepens in Europe, banks have stopped lending to each other, as no one really knows the extent of hidden liabilities on the books of their brethren banks.

“It seems interbank lending is starting to freeze up in Europe,” said Morgan.  “This was one of the main factors contributing to the financial crisis of 2008. So there is much to consider and it boils down to the fact we are in the final stages of a currency depreciation on a global basis.”

And like 2008, Morgan expects the same volatility in silver in the coming weeks, though maybe not as dramatic as 2008′s swoon.  And this time, the strong hands, who understand the unpleasant symptoms of volatility during the currency crisis in progress, will be rewarded on the other side—as was the case in 2008.

“What happened in 2008 was a silver sell-off that caused a shortage, pushing the physical price of silver at the retail level to around $13/oz., while paper silver traded under $9/oz. on the futures exchanges,” concluded Morgan.  “Excessive short selling then ran the price from about the $20/oz. level to the brink of $50/oz. The next leg up could take out the $50/oz. level after a few tries and then not look back until establishing a new nominal level of $65/oz.–$75/oz.”

Look who’s predicting $1,900 gold by October

Predictions of lofty prices coming from regular hard-money advocates and gold bugs are certainly not hard to find.  Predictions of $2,000, $5,000, $10,000 and $100,000 targets for the top in the gold market are numerous.  But when a mainstream money manager of the highest esteem projects a major move higher in Wall Street’s most despised asset—gold, traders should sit up and take notice.

Speaking with Bloomberg on Wednesday, FX Concept’s founder, John Taylor, the man who pioneered the analysis of foreign exchange cycles, expects the gold price to soar to $1,900 by October, or a 20% rally from today’s price within a time frame of between 11 to 14 weeks.

Taylor sees gold as the ultimate safe haven asset while the developed nations deal with crushing debt loads; but he singles out the euro as the more likely currency in the U.S. dollar/euro cross to devalue against the other on the way down against gold during the next leg down in the global debt crisis, which he said could begin “within three or fours weeks time from now.”

Taylor also sees the euro dropping to $1.15 against the dollar during the next down leg.  And, if correct, then, he expects the gold price in euros to achieve 1,650 euros per ounce by October, which calculates to a nearly 50% jump in euro terms.  And it gets worse for the euro.  By next year, the euro is going to par with the dollar, he said.

When asked why the euro has held up so well up til now, Taylor quipped, “because the dollar is so weak.”  But as the euro zone flounders in the handling of Greece’s sovereigns, it will eventually become apparent that “the euro has to be restructured, and not just a little restructuring, but very, very significantly restructured to make it work,” he said.

But after the fireworks of new highs in gold in every currency, he expects the rally to turn ugly, as the second leg of the global debt crisis takes every asset down in a heap, including gold.  And how far will the gold price drop as the U.S. and Europe plunge back into a deeper recession?  Taylor believes gold will touch $1,100, a target which may seem incomprehensible during the gold mania, but will be the result, he said, of institutions and hedge funds scrambling to get liquid to meet redemptions.

Silver to Break $40, Gold $1,550 in “next couple of weeks,” says James Turk

Speaking with Eric King of King World News, James Turk is back with another prediction.  Silver and gold will move decisively higher by the end of June, with silver breaking back above $40 and gold breaching $1,550 per Troy ounce in a mere two weeks, he told KWN.

For now, Turk believes the bottom is in for the two metals, and expects the rally to begin now.  And not many traders will be expecting a rally in precious metals during the traditionally weak summer months of June, July and August.

“The sharp rally that occurred today off of those support zones suggests to me that the correction is over,” said Turk.  “In other words, we are going to see silver back above $40 and gold above $1,550 within the next couple of weeks. Everything is all set for new record high prices in both metals this summer, which is going to surprise a lot of people.”

Turk reminded investors that sometimes investment demand trumps seasonality for gold and silver, as was the case in the early 80s during Mexico’s currency crisis.  Record high interest rates toppled the Mexican government’s ability to remain solvent following a U.S. tight monetary policy induced recession and resulting falling crude prices (Mexico’s largest export).  Several brutal devaluations of the peso took place during the crisis.  Gold prices soared.

“I just think that people don’t really understand what can happen this summer,” Turk continued.  “We’ve spoken before about the summer of 1982 when the gold price rose 50% from June to September, propelled back then by the Mexican debt default.”

According to Turk, today’s financial crisis dwarfs the scare in 1982, in that the bond market has priced in 17%, 11% and 10%  10-year bond rates for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, respectively, according to Bloomberg this morning.

“There are so many potential debt defaults going on today it is hard to figure out which one will be the tipping point,” Turk warned.  “But whether it is Greece or Ireland or someone else, it doesn’t really matter Eric, it will be a clear sign that today’s fragile monetary system of fiat currencies backed by nothing is imploding.”

The 2008 collapse, which took down all asset classes but sovereign debt securities, won’t be repeated for the precious metals during the coming currency crisis, according to Turk.  What was a liquidity crisis in 2008 has turn into a solvency crisis, leaving few choices for investors other than the precious metals to run to for safety as the world wonders which currency will collapse next.

“This summer you could see a move higher in gold and silver that literally shakes the world, more than it was shaken when Lehman Brothers collapsed,” said Turk.

Turk concludes, “A lot of people ask if we get another Lehman style collapse, will gold and silver fall like they did in 2008?  I say no they won’t.  The reason is back in 2008 the primary driver after Lehman collapsed was a rush by investors, hedge funds and everyone else for liquidity.  Most people learned a very valuable lesson from that event.  Consequently, this time around you are not going to see a rush for liquidity, you are going to see a rush for safety.  The safest haven of them all is physical gold and physical silver.”

A Gold crash coming?

If you’re loaded up on gold, silver and commodities, congratulations, you’re in good company.  Mega hedge fund managers John Paulson, David Einhorn, and George Soros (rumored to have sold his GLD for gold stocks) are with you.  Iconic investors and gurus, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, James Turk and Richard Russell are on board the gold train, as well, along with many more lesser-known brilliant investors.

So, should the above-mentioned investors be frightened by articles published by Reuters, entitled, “Gold crash: What could trigger the inevitable”?  That’s the title of a piece posted on the news agency’s Web site over the long weekend.

From the start, the premise of the article’s title, that a gold crash is inevitable, is flawed.  Long-time gold expert Jim Sinclair, Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters, James Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, and World Bank president Robert Zoellick would most likely disagree with a gold crash theory, as these three men suggest highly that some form of a gold-backed currency, including a gold-backed U.S. currency, or not, must eventually become part of the new international monetary regime.

Under that scenario, as outlined on many occasions by James Sinclair, gold would most likely trade within an elevated band (instead of fixing the price) as central banks become locked in a gold-backed regime that loosely resembles the articles set forth at Bretton Woods in 1944.

The inevitable gold crash?  It’s much more likely that a crash in the U.S. Treasury market should be assessed as inevitable.  PIMCO’s Bill Gross would be loaded to the gills with U.S. Treasury notes bonds if gold was destined to crash.  Gross is not. In fact, the Bond King has no bonds in his BOND fund.

Can you imagine McDonald’s not offering hamburgers?

The article goes on to suggest that betting on the dollar’s next direction is akin to gambling.  In the short run, the author is spot on.  But, as a long-term investors, which the author believes is the only way to play this financial debacle, betting on the dollar’s demise is for the foolhardy—better yet, for the “nervous Nellies.”

“The clearest threat to gold’s reign as the reserve currency of nervous Nellies is a possible rebound of the dollar,” according to Reuters. “Given the congressional wrangling over the debt limit, budget and growing inflation, betting on the buck is like trying to figure out whether a racehorse will finish. They often pull up lame.”

The author suggests that a miracle is in the offing and that politicians who know that shutting down the U.S. Government to save the dollar is political suicide (the 1992 Congress comes to mind) and will miraculously learn the meaning of noblesse oblige and do the right thing for the country.  But, until we see Ben Bernanke and Ron Paul scheduled to a duel on the White House front lawn, the author may be onto something.

Holders of gold will take the other side of this author’s bet in a New York second, and have, by betting on a racehorse that’s come in first, without except, for more than 5,000 years. And not only have the heavy weights of finance mentioned above taken that bet, but central banks around the world, who have collectively become net buyers of gold, are increasingly placing that bet, too.  According to another Reuter’s article published in April 2010, central banks have become net buyers of gold in 2009, a first since 1989.

And as far as the author’s points regarding a “strengthening U.S. economy and rising interest rates . . . derailing the epic yellow metal mania,” they are as flawed as the title of the piece.

Mania?  This Reuters writer originally suggested that gold investors are nothing but “nervous Nellies,” which is quite the opposite mindset to the greed thesis characterized by manias?  So, which is it? Is fear or greed driving the decade-long gold price rise?

Reuter’s point that a strengthening U.S. economy will save the day and stop the embarrassing ascent in the gold price may well be true in a relativistic context, but not in real terms, however, which is the whole point of the Fed’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and the investor revolt into the gold market.  Real interest rates at, or below, zero propel the gold price, not nominal GDP.  So, the notion that gold doesn’t throw off income is a species one within today’s financial environment of near-zero Treasuries at the short end while food and energy prices soar well past the double-digit mark.

And as far as the case that higher stock prices presage an economic turnaround in the U.S. economy has less to do about a real strengthening economy, but has more to do with institutional investors locked into the bond/stocks allocation charters betting on a devaluation, a la Zimbabwe—wherein the Zimbabwe stock market, in one year, outpaced the returns of the S&P over its entire history as an index.

And lastly, higher interest rates, as Swiss money manager Marc Faber has stated, mean nothing if the rate of inflation is higher than the Fed’s federal funds rate—as during the 1970s. Maybe the author was too young to remember that golden decade of wealth destruction, which in real terms eclipsed the the wealth destruction of the Great Depression.

And since this present crisis is expected to dwarf the financial pain of the 1970s, it makes a lot of sense for investors to become “nervous Nellies”—and fast.

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